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3/2/2018: We are not buying AINV because the running rate of annual earnings at $0.64 is artificially inflated. If the BDC stops waiving management and incentive fees and as the portfolio yield drops by 0.5% to 10.0%, we expect earnings to drop closer to $0.48-$0.50 assuming no further immediate bad debts. The risk profile of the BDC is reducing under the new management (since 2016). AINV's portfolio is becoming more granular, more loans are being booked in the first lien position and more are being undertaken where Apollo has control over the debt. In recognition, we reduced our risk profile outlook from HIGH to MEDIUM months ago, which means we assume a 4% average erosion of the distribution or 20% over 5 years. That will take the adjusted NIIPS from $0.48 to $0.38 by 2022. However, given the lower risk profile we've increased the terminal multiple to 11X. That's pretty much where AINV trades at the moment using the adjusted NIIPS. The current yield is 11.2% but on our pro-forma NIIPS of $0.48 is closer to 9%. Our 5 Year Return projects out at only 22% at the moment, thanks to two dividend cuts expected: one in 2018 and another in 2022. Not worth investing in at those levels. However, we will revisit if and when we hear how AINV will handle the 25% of fees in waiver mode, which expires in March 2018. Making the fee reduction permanent would boost Adjusted NIIPS in 2018 to $0.57 and the 5 Year Return to 45% and closer to our minimum return of 50%. Chances of Apollo cutting its fees: Low.