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Publications and reports about forest and climate change curated by the LIFE FORECCAsT project
Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280–315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation.
Here, we present results from a new forest carbon monitoring and modeling system that combines high-resolution remote sensing, field data, and ecological modeling to estimate contemporary above-ground forest carbon stocks, and project future forest carbon sequestration potential for the state of Maryland at 90 m resolution. Statewide, the contemporary above-ground carbon stock was estimated to be 110.8 Tg C (100.3–125.8 Tg C), with a corresponding mean above-ground biomass density of 103.7 Mg ha−1 which was within 2% of independent empirically-based estimates.
The paper assesses the impact of forestry practices on carbon balance in forest ecosystems the example of eleven regions fully or partly included in forest-steppe or steppe of European Russia (ER). Calculations made by the procedure «Regional evaluation carbon balance in forests», has shown, that yearly fires and other forest destruction causes harmed carbon stock by all pools of forest ecosystems the studied regions in amount of 2632,000 [tC year−1] (tons of carbon per year) (87.3 % of total loss of carbon by forest ecosystems). Forestry practices such as salvage felling harm carbon stock of forest ecosystems in amount of 288 thousand [tC year−1] (9.5 %). Improvement felling harmed it in amount of 108,000 [tC year−1] (3.58 %).
We revealed a significant positive effect of the sums of atmospheric precipitation in May-August on pine growth (correlation coefficient up to 0.39) and a weak effect of air temperatures. The prevailing cyclic components of the time series studied are established: a high-frequency cycle (about 3 years) and a Brikner cycle (about 33 years). We have constructed mathematical models by the method of singular-spectral analysis (SSA). In the mathematical models constructed by us, due to the use of combined time series of climatic factors (the sum of precipitation, hydrothermal coefficient and indices of the radial increment of pine stands, for the first time a very high coefficient of similarity between actual and theoretical series was achieved
Temperature and precipitation regimes in the East-European forest-steppe have been disrupted in response to the recent climatic changes. Particularly, (1) increased the range of day-night temperatures, especially during the spring – summer period, (2) increased the number and intensity of thaws in January – February, and (3) the timing, range and intensity of annual precipitation were distorted, thus making some periods of the year excessively dry or wet. Synergistically, these disturbances (1) increase environmental stress to fruit plants, and (2) alter conditions for their growth, development and crop bearing. Hence, we argue that current criteria for the selection of plant varieties for cultivation in that region are no longer valid
The significant reduction of shrubs and grass plants biodiversity between urban and reserved territory could be a biomarker of human impact and effect of urbanisation. We could conclude that trees are more resistant to climate change and anthropogenic pressure.The research of cytogenetic parameters for English oak seed progeny in the areas with different levels of anthropogenic pollution was carried out. High level of mitotic pathologies and mitotic activities of seed progeny plantlets from trees growing near freeway was observed. Also high level of variability indices, such as percentage of prophase cells, metaphase cells, mitotic pathologies were seen.
Climate-induced tree mortality became a global phenomenon during the last century and it is expected to increase in many regions in the future along with a further increase in the frequency of drought and heat events. However, tree mortality at the ecosystem level remains challenging to quantify since long-term, tree- individual, reliable observations are scarce. Here, we present a unique data set of monitoring records from 126 forest stands across Switzerland, which include five major European tree species (Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, European beech, and sessile and common oak) and cover a time span of over one century (1898-2013), with inventory periods of 5 to 10 years.
By combining data from a network of forest plots with repeat airborne lidar, here we develop an approach to (i) map fine-scale variation in aboveground carbon density (ACD) and its change over time across the landscape, and (ii) link these changes in ACD to forest structural attributes, species composition, disturbance regimes and local topography. We tested this framework on a temperate forest in the Alps characterized by the presence of three dominant species: spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba) and beech (Fagus sylvatica).
Globally, the increase in the climatic variability has led to adverse effects on the treeline species in the high-elevation mountain landscapes. Identifying the geographical space that supports the treeline species survival over time is essential for conservation biogeography. Increase in the global warming and snowmelt has made available the treeline species favourable niches in the higher elevations. Random Forest algorithm assuming non-parametric distribution was employed to predict the potential distribution of Betula utilis niche in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The potential distributions were simulated in the Last Inter-Glaciation (LIG), present (the year 1970–2000) and future (the year 2061–2080) environmental conditions.
The influence of climate change on the biomass of a tree species in the format of additive models for transcontinental hydrothermal gradients has not yet been studied. In the present study, the first attempt is made to model changes in the additive component composition of the stand biomass and NPP of two-needled pines along Trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients. In the process of modelling the database of pine stand biomass in a number of 2460 sample plots with the definitions of biomass and 760 plots with the definitions of biomass and annual NPP compiled by the authors, is used.
Relationships between forest cover and streamflow have been studied worldwide, but only a few studies have examined how gradual changes in forest structure and species composition due to logging and climate change affect watershed water yield (Q) and flow regimes. In this study, we analyzed long-term (45 years) hydrologic, climate and forest dynamics data from the subboreal Tahe watershed in northeastern China. Our purpose was to evaluate the effects of forest logging and regeneration on changes in forest biomass and species and to quantify the subsequent impact on mean annual streamflow and flow regime under a changing climate.
Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic).
Climate change-induced tree mortality is occurring worldwide, at increasingly larger scales and with increasing frequency. How climate change-induced tree mortality could affect the ecology and carbon (C) sink capacity of soils remains unknown. This study investigated regional-scale drought-induced tree mortality, based on events that occurred after a very dry year (2012) in the Carpathians mountain range (Romania), which caused mortality in three common conifer species: Scots pine, Black pine, and Silver fir. This resulted in hot-spots of biogenic soil CO2 emissions (soil respiration; Rs).
Selective logging causes at least half of the emissions from tropical forest degradation. Reduced-impact logging for climate (RIL-C) is proposed as a way to maintain timber production while minimizing forest damage. Here we synthesize data from 61 coordinated field-based surveys of logging impacts in seven countries across the tropics. We estimate that tropical selective logging emitted 834 Tg CO2 in 2015, 6% of total tropical greenhouse gas emissions. Felling, hauling, and skidding caused 59%, 31%, and 10% of these emissions, respectively. We suggest that RIL-C incentive programs consider a feasible target carbon impact factor of 2.3 Mg emitted per Mg of timber extracted.
Vegetation is known to have strong influence on evapotranspiration (ET), a major component of terrestrial water balance. Yet hydrological models often describe ET by methods unable to sufficiently include the variability of vegetation characteristics in their predictions. To take advantage of increasing availability of high-resolution open GIS-data on land use, vegetation and soil characteristics in the boreal zone, a modular, spatially distributed model for upscaling ET and other hydrological processes from a grid cell to a catchment level is presented and validated. An improved approach to upscale stomatal conductance to canopy scale using information on plant type (conifer / deciduous) and stand leaf-area index (LAI) is proposed by coupling a common leaf-scale stomatal conductance model with a simple canopy radiation transfer scheme.
The present study models the potential current and future distribution ranges of Taxus wallichiana based on its suitable climatic envelop developed under a baseline scenario (1960–1990) and climate change scenarios centred on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the year 2070, as provided in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the UNO’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The projected shrink in climatic niche of Taxus wallichiana by 28% (RCP 4.5) and 31% (RCP 8.5) highlights the vulnerability of the endangered species to climate change impacts and the perturbations on the structure of mountain ecosystem.
Deforestation and forest degradation are major drivers of global environmental change and tropical forests are subjected to unprecedented pressures from both.For most tropical zones, deforestation rates are averaged across entire countries,often without highlighting regional differentiation. There are also very few estimates of forest degradation, either averaged or localized for the tropics. We quantified regional and country-wide changes in deforestation and forest degradation rates for Madagascar from Landsat temporal data (in two intervals,1994–2002 and 2002–2014). To our knowledge, this is the first country-wide estimate of forest degradation for Madagascar.
We illustrate the value of ‘legacy’ mentalities, enthusiasm for trial and error, and prosaic restorative cultures among resource stewardship actors, focusing on those whose present experimentation responds to lived experience of industrial capitalism's failures. Insights arise on efforts we must all make to craft a world that can survive the future we have wrought. Unpremeditated experimental relations with nonhuman others, and with the future, unfold materially in time and space - not through official policy initiatives, but extemporaneously, on the fringes of formality.
Knowledge of the response of thinning implementation on forest soil–atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO2, CH4, N2O) fluxes exchange system in Mediterranean region is limited because of the high heterogeneity of both soil properties and forest biomass. The novelty of this study is grounded predominantly in evaluating for the first time the response of annual GHG fluxes to thinning in a coniferous peri-urban forest soil in Greece, thus contributing significantly to the enrichment of the GHG fluxes database from the Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Results suggest that CH4 uptake increased with increasing thinning intensity.
Global concern about the restoration of vegetation ecosystems has recently increased. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) and climate adaptation concepts should be integrated into revegetation programs to achieve sustainable ecosystems. The Yanhe Basin in the Loess Plateau of China (7687 km2) has been subjected to intense human activity for centuries. It was selected as the study area because vegetation degradation and restoration are occurring there. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate whether the current vegetation pattern is appropriate, and (2) provide a restoration plan for future revegetation programs based on PNV and habitat suitability patterns simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS.
Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape’s potential to store carbon and the landscape’s current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modern land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This information will help policy-makers and land managers evaluate trade-offs between commodity production and mitigating climate change through forest carbon storage.
Climate is the predominant constraint on the distribution and composition of forested ecosystems. Forest managers and policy makers need to consider the effects of potential future climates on important forest attributes, such as aboveground biomass (AGB) present in standing trees. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, which systematically collects forest data across all forested lands in the USA, is an integral component in large-scale forest management and policy. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a common forest growth and yield simulator used by forest resource managers.
Global and regional environmental disturbances, including harvesting and climate change, can have significant integrated and interactive effects on forest ecosystems, altering their structure and function, and therefore long-term sustainability. Process ecosystem models are useful tools to gain a better understanding of complex, interacting ecological process and their response to disturbance. The biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC was modified and tested using field observations from an experimentally whole-tree harvested northern hardwood watershed (W5) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA.
Ecological-bioclimatic modeling projects substantial vegetation changes: biomes shift northwards; area of conifer forest decreases and grasslands increases. Fire and the thawing of permafrost would be the principal mechanisms to shape new biomes. The zone at risk of forest loss in Siberia would extend northwards. Accumulated surface fuel loads together with an increase in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, which are expected to facilitate vegetation progression towards equilibrium with the climate. To minimize negative consequences and benefit from climate change in Siberian forests we suggest potential adaptive measures depending on management goals.
Wildfires are a dominant and integral component of the Alaskan boreal zone that affect the species composition and age-structure of vegetation. Climate change within Alaska is likely to result in increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. Post-fire regrowth has been shown to be highly dependent on pre-fire species composition and stand structure as well as post-fire soil conditions such as organic layer depth and soil moisture. Vegetation characteristics in turn can act to influence fire frequency and severity, through differences in fuel amount and flammability, as well as soil characteristics, through species-specific effects on litter quality and decomposition rate.
Boreal forests are currently experiencing rapid changes. CO2 enriched conditions and warming with longer growing seasons are anticipated to increase boreal forests' growth and productivity, yet the frequency and severity of droughts and disturbances is also expected to increase in these forests. Increased growth and productivity under CO2 enrichment may reduce the vulnerability of trees to extreme events such as drought. It, however, could also increase tree mortality through increased competition for light and soil resources, or through acceleration of tree lifecycle.
Northeastern U.S. ecosystems are experiencing warmer winters and declining seasonal snowpack. Site-level evidence from this region indicates that altered winter conditions with continued climate change will lead to a complex suite of changes to forest nutrient and carbon cycling. However, existing studies are limited in temporal and spatial extent. The northeast region experiences high variability in winter conditions across a relatively small latitudinal gradient, and it is likely that responses to winter climate change depend on the historic conditions to which plants and soil organisms are adapted. Therefore, the importance of winter for forest productivity may vary considerably across a latitudinal and winter climate gradient.
Forest management is one of the most extensive and continual drivers of ecosystem dynamics, yet little is known about how forest management decisions influence forest ecology at regional to continental scales. Our research uses a macrosystems approach to expand our understanding of these mechanisms in the face of a changing climate, and incorporate them into Earth system models (ESMs). We outlines an ongoing research project focusing on the forests of the continental US, which seeks to answer the question: "Does Forest management matter?" We describe a framework for mapping and scaling forest management for ESMs that can expand the geographic scale of analysis and depth of questions that could be asked.
Forest ecosystems of the Russian Federation are expected to face high risks under environmental dynamics related to climate change. Analyzing the likely impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems becomes crucial to understand the potential adaptation of forests, to guide management strategies, as well as to preserve their ecosystem services. With the aim to provide information on the possible modifications of geographic ranges, on the medium to long term, for some Russian dominant forest species under climate change, we applied a Cascade Ensemble System (CES) approach. This consists in combining an Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to six bias-corrected Earth System Model (ESM) projections, in turn driven by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) proxy of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, in order to obtain maps of future suitability for forest species. The suitability information is then flagged with information about its ”likelihood”, adopting the IPCC terminology based on consensus among projections. Maps of aggregated changes were created in order to identify areas potentially more vulnerable to climate change. Results show that possible impacts of climate change (either gain or loss) were diversified across species with a pronounced Northward shift of the ranges. Further analyses were performed at sub-regional level revealing the potential for the Arctic Circle to become a refuge area for some conifer species. Species-aggregated c...
Isoprene and monoterpenes (MTs) are among the most abundant and reactive volatile organic compounds produced by plants (biogenic volatile organic compounds). We conducted a meta‐analysis to quantify the mean effect of environmental factors associated to climate change (warming, drought, elevated CO2, and O3) on the emission of isoprene and MTs. Results indicated that all single factors except warming inhibited isoprene emission. When subsets of data collected in experiments run under similar change of a given environmental factor were compared, isoprene and photosynthesis responded negatively to elevated O3 (−8% and −10%, respectively) and drought (−15% and −42%), and in opposite ways to elevated CO2 (−23% and +55%) and warming (+53% and −23%, respectively). Effects on MTs emission were usually not significant, with the exceptions of a significant stimulation caused by warming (+39%) and by elevated O3 (limited to O3‐insensitive plants, and evergreen species with storage organs). Our results clearly highlight individual effects of environmental factors on isoprene and MT emissions, and an overall uncoupling between these secondary metabolites produced by the same methylerythritol 4‐phosphate pathway. Future results from manipulative experiments and long‐term observations may help untangling the interactive effects of these factors and filling gaps featured in the current meta‐analysis.
Soil nitrogen (N) loss has been predicted to intensify with increased global precipitation changes. However, the relative contributions of leaching and gaseous N emissions to intensified N losses are largely unknown. Thus, we simulated intensified precipitation seasonality in a subtropical forest by extending the dry season via rainfall exclusion and increasing the wet‐season storms via irrigation without changing the total annual precipitation. Extending the dry season length increased the monthly mean soil NO3− content by 25%–64%, net N mineralization rate by 32%–40%, and net nitrification rate by 25%–28%. After adding water in the wet season, the monthly NO3− leaching was enhanced by 43% in the relatively dry year (2013, 2,094‐mm annual rainfall), but reduced by 51% in the relatively wet year (2014, 1,551 mm). In contrast, the monthly mean N2O emissions were reduced by 24% in 2013 but increased by 78% in 2014. Overall, the annual inorganic N content was decreased significantly by the precipitation changes. Decrease of soil inorganic N might be linked to the enhanced NO3− leaching in 2013, and be linked to the increased N2O emissions in 2014. However, in both years the annual total amount of N lost through leaching was significantly greater than that through N2O emissions. The enhanced N2O emissions driven by wet‐season storms were correlated with an increase in nirS abundance. Our results suggest that increased frequency of droughts and storms will decrease soil inorganic N content in warm and humid subtropical forests mainly through enhanced leaching losses.
This study provides an overview of mangrove forestations in Abu Dhabi and its numerous environmental benefits including the sequestering of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate change mitigation. It describes the efforts to increase mangrove plantation and the site selection criteria for mangrove establishment in the coastal land. It also discusses the natural regeneration and propagation of mangroves through seeds and seedlings, and the favorable conditions for the trees to reproduce and grow. Furthermore, the study describes the adaptation and occurrences of mangroves worldwide and in Abu Dhabi, the main anthropogenic and natural threats to mangroves ecosystems, and some of the biological & physiological characteristicsof mangrove trees such as the aerial roots “pneumatophore” and the salts glands that assist the trees to survive the harsh climate conditions. Finally, the study also highlights the importance of mangroves in climate change mitigation, carbon sequestration, and coastline protection. The valuable information presented can help in managing and preserving this unique ecosystem and support climate change mitigation and adaptation, and achieve environmental sustainability
Boreal forests form the largest and least disturbed forest biome in the northern hemisphere. However, anthropogenic pressure from intensified forest management, eutrophication, and climate change may alter the ecosystem functions of understory vegetation and services boreal forests provide. Swedish forests span long gradients of climate, nitrogen deposition, and management intensity. This makes them ideal to study how the species composition and functions of other, more pristine, boreal forests might change under increased anthropogenic pressure. Moreover, the National Forest Inventory (NFI) has collected systematic data on Swedish forest vegetation since the mid-20th century. We use this data to quantify changes in vegetation types between two periods, 1953-1962 and 2003-2012. The results show changes in forest understory vegetation since the 1950s at scales not previously documented in the boreal biome. The spatial extent of most vegetation types changed significantly. Shade-adapted and nutrient-demanding species (those with high specific leaf area) have become more common at the expense of light-demanding and nutrient-conservative (low specific leaf area) species. The cover of ericaceous dwarf shrubs decreased dramatically. These effects were strongest where anthropogenic impacts were greatest, suggesting links to drivers such as nitrogen deposition and land-use change. These changes may impact ecosystem functions and services via effects on higher trophic levels and faster plant litter decomposition in the expanding vegetation types. This, in turn, may influence nutrient dynamics, and consequently ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration.
Climate-based predictions of species distributions provide information for understanding impacts of climate change. However, species distribution models do not include land management zones as input. Improving understanding of geographic shifts will require consideration of management zones where certain activities could facilitate or impede responses to climate change. For instance, assisted migration to overcome dispersal barriers could be challenged in areas designated for “untrammeled” character (e.g., wilderness). Alternatively, large tracts of land with uninterrupted disturbance regimes may offer opportunities for disturbance-facilitated establishment of species into new areas. We focused on current and future distributions of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a keystone species of treeline. Current and future “climate space” of whitebark pine were overlaid onto ecoregions and land management zones. We also used different thresholds of predicted presence to assess the sensitivity of patterns to varying levels of confidence.
Climate change is a major concern for forest managers involved in ecological restoration, in part because they are responsible for planting trees that will be components of a healthy and resilient ecosystem for the next 100 to 200 years. Anticipated changes in climate include changes in temperature, precipitation, and length of the growing season. Trees locally adapted to their native climate may not be able to survive or grow in novel climates. Current afforestation strategies may thus require the use of seeds from populations already adapted to future climates.
In some Rocky Mountain treeline ecotones, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) serves as a tree island initiator more frequently than Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) or subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Tree island initiation begins with a solitary krummholz tree, which provides sufficient leeward protection so that another tree may become established, resulting in a tree island. More trees may establish on the lee side over time. Whitebark pine mortality from white pine blister rust (pathogen: Cronartium ribicola) reduces opportunities for such facilitation. Will declines in whitebark pine alter treeline response to climate warming? We have surveyed various treeline communities from the Greater Yellowstone area (Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, USA) to whitebark pine’s northern limit.
Simulations suggest that for both species the common phenological strategy of one generation annually (univoltine) will shift northward with warming throughout this century. As optimum habitat for I. typographus univoltinism shifts northward, habitat supporting a 2nd generation, a historically common strategy in warm European Picea forests, expands on both continents. In contrast, a 2nd D. ponderosae generation has been historically rare due to traits that evolved for phenological synchrony in its cool native habitats. As thermal habitat for D. ponderosae univoltinism shifts northward, suitability for a 2nd generation is limited to the warmest Pinus forests on both continents. In the near future (2011–2040), models project extensive thermal suitability for inter-continental establishment of both species, highlighting the need for effective mitigation policies and continued monitoring at ports in an era of climate change and increasing global trade. Throughout the century, thermal suitability remains high for I. typographus population success on both continents, for D. ponderosae in warm areas of Europe, and for D. ponderosae expansion into novel North American Pinus habitats. Portions of the historical D. ponderosae range, however, are projected to become thermally unsuitable.
FORMIT-M is a simple-to-use open-access forest management simulator for Europe. It combines process-based and data-based components. It uses standard forest inventory data and climate scenarios as input. Conventional and alternative management scenarios follow practices in European regions. Management had a greater impact on carbon stocks and harvest potential than climate change.
We assess various policy needs for biomass data and recommend a long-term collaborative effort among forest biomass data producers and users to meet these needs. A gap remains, however, between what can be achieved in the research domain and what is required to support policy making and meet reporting requirements. There is no single biomass dataset that serves all users in terms of definition and type of biomass measurement, geographic area, and uncertainty requirements, and whether there is need for the most recent up-to-date biomass estimate or a long-term biomass trend. The research and user communities should embrace the potential strength of the multitude of upcoming missions in combination to provide for these varying needs and to ensure continuity for long-term data provision which one-off research missions cannot provide. International coordination bodies such as Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI), Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), and Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC‐GOLD) will be integral in addressing these issues in a way that fulfils these needs in a timely fashion. Further coordination work should particularly look into how space-based data can be better linked with field reference data sources such as forest plot networks, and there is also a need to ensure that reference data cover a range of forest types, management regimes, and disturbance regimes worldwide.
We carried out the first genome-wide population genomics study in a Neotropical tree, Handroanthus impetiginosus (Bignoniaceae), sampling 75,838 SNPs by sequence capture in 128 individuals across 13 populations. We found evidences for local adaptation using Bayesian correlations of allele frequency and environmental variables (32 loci in 27 genes) complemented by an analysis of selective sweeps and genetic hitchhiking events using SweepFinder2 (81 loci in 47 genes). Fifteen genes were identified by both approaches. By accounting for population genetic structure, we also found 14 loci with selection signal in a STRUCTURE-defined lineage comprising individuals from five populations, using Outflank. All approaches pinpointed highly diverse and structurally conserved genes affecting plant development and primary metabolic processes. Spatial interpolation forecasted differences in the expected allele frequencies at loci under selection over time, suggesting that H. impetiginosus may track its habitat during climate changes. However, local adaptation through natural selection may also take place, allowing species persistence due to niche evolution. A high genetic differentiation was seen among the H. impetiginosus populations, which, together with the limited power of the experiment, constrains the improved detection of other types of soft selective forces, such as background, balanced, and purifying selection. Small differences in allele frequency distribution among widespread populations and the low number of loci with detectable adaptive sweeps advocate for a polygenic model of adaptation involving a potentially large number of small genome-wide effects.
The international legal framework for valuing the carbon stored in forests, known as "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation' (REDD+), will have a major impact on indigenous peoples and forest communities. The REDD+ regime contains many assumptions about the identity, tenure and rights of indigenous and local communities who inhabit, use or claim rights to forested lands, the authors bring together expert analysis of public international law, climate change treaties, property law, human rights and indigenous customary land tenure to provide a systemic account of the laws governing forest carbon sequestration and their interaction, their work covers recent developments in climate change law, including the Agreement from the Conference of the Parties in Paris that came into force in 2016. The Impact of Climate Change Mitigation on Indigenous and Forest Communities is a rich and much-needed contribution to contemporary understanding of this topic.
We compare model results for vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895–2100 assuming: 1) unlimited wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2 fertilization effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios, except without fire and with a moderate CO2 fertilization effect. The greatest carbon stock loss, approximately 23% of historical levels, occurs with unlimited ignitions and no CO2 fertilization effect. With stochastic ignitions and a CO2 fertilization effect, carbon stocks are more stable than with unlimited ignitions. For all scenarios, the dominant vegetation type shifts from pure conifer to mixed forest, indicating that vegetation cover change is driven solely by climate and that significant mortality and vegetation shifts are likely through the 21st century regardless of fire regime changes.
Notre étude se focalise sur les effets de l’abroutissement par les grands ongulés et du changement climatique sur la régénération du sapin, du hêtre et de l’épicéa en mélange. Nous utilisons pour cela diverses approches. Nous montrons que la germination et l’installation de semis de hêtres n’est pas affectée par l’éclairement au sol plus faible en situation de mélange. Nous mettons en évidence une quasi-inversion d’essences entre sapin et épicéa au niveau de la strate de régénération, bénéficiant à l’épicéa, lorsqu’ils sont soumis à une forte pression d’abroutissement. A l’échelle des traits foliaires, nous trouvons des réponses différentes entre les trois essences aux pressions du climat et de l’abroutissement, le sapin étant le seul à exprimer une réponse claire à l’abroutissement (tissus plus résistants, augmentation du rapport C/N foliaire). Nos résultats démontrent également une diminution de l’abroutissement avec l’augmentation de la température hivernale et un effet plus important de l’abroutissement que de la température printanière sur la croissance des semis de sapin, hêtre, érable. Enfin, via une approche de modélisation, nous avons simulé la dynamique d’un peuplement mélangé de sapin, hêtre et épicéa sur une durée de 100 ans, et montré une modification des seuils de tolérance à la sécheresse par l’abroutissement, et vaildé la possible disparition du sapin dans des scénarios comprenant abroutissement et changement climatique.
The quantitative knowledge of global forest litterfall is very important for understanding the global biogeochemical cycle and evaluating of forest ecosystem services. Our aims are to show the spatio‐temporal patterns of forest litterfall and the variation in different forest types and climate zones in the world. We compiled the global forest litterfall dataset of 2347 total litterfall and 1507 leaf litterfall measurements by a survey of literature published. The total litterfall and leaf litterfall were estimated in 2000 and 2009, respectively, through raster and vector calculation based on remote sensing‐based global vegetation cover data.
Les régions alpines sont particulièrement sensibles aux changements climatiques en cours. Ainsi, l’ouest des Alpes s’est réchauffé deux fois plus vite que l’hémisphère Nord au cours du XXème siècle. Les rythmes saisonniers des arbres, comme beaucoup d’autres organismes, sont fortement modifiés par le réchauffement climatique. La phénologie et les variations temporelles fines du climat apparaissent comme des composantes incontournables à prendre en compte pour prédire la répartition des espèces. L’objectif principal de ce travail de thèse a été de comprendre la réponse de la phénologie des espèces arborées au réchauffement climatique dans les Alpes et de développer des outils pour évaluer cette réponse dans le futur. Pour atteindre cet objectif nous avons utilisé des données phénologiques (débourrement, floraison, senescence foliaire,) pour le noisetier, le frêne, le bouleau, le mélèze et l’épicéa, issues du programme de sciences participatives Phénoclim
The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate‐induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate‐driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape‐scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models.
Belgian’s future climate is projected to be warmer, with a higher frequency of extreme precipitation events. Parental temperature influenced the germination success, bud phenology and growth of oak and beech seedlings, but we did not observe DNA methylationthat could help to explain the phenological change mediated by the parental temperature. Studies on both saplings and mature treessuggested that drought may influence ecosystem processes in young and mature forests, affecting the growth and vitality of trees. Despite the high awareness of climate change as an issue in forest management and the need to adjust management practices, we found a lack of knowledge on how to adapt forest management in order to mitigate the vulnerability of forests under changing climate conditions. The results of this project confirm that admixing tree species in oak and beech stands is a good adaptation measure across all forest development stages.
Economic consequences of altered survival probabilities under climate change should be considered for regeneration planning in Southeast Germany. Findings suggest that species compositions of mixed stands obtained from continuous optimization may buffer but not completely mitigate economic consequences. Mixed stands of Norway spruce ( Picea abies L. Karst . ) and European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) (considering biophysical interactions between tree species) were found to be more robust, against both perturbations in survival probabilities and economic input variables, compared to block mixtures (excluding biophysical interactions).
We show that current management policies are threatening biodiversity in Romania, and changes in forest management policies are urgently needed to halt the loss of habitats of protected species. Although recent management policies likely did lead to good tree species connectivity, habitats of protected species are becoming increasingly fragmented by logging. Adopting policies to protect forest habitats of protected species, limiting large-scale salvage logging within protected areas, and restricting road building to reduce forest fragmentation are crucial steps towards the long-term persistence of biodiversity hotspots in the Romanian Carpathians.
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals